Early Warnings Save Lives: How GHACOF Helped Prepare East Africa for the Rainy Season.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with partners organized The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) that recently concluded its 66th seasonal forecast meeting, bringing together representatives from Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Djibouti, and South Sudan. This year’s theme, “Early Warning for Anticipatory Action,” underscored the critical role of timely forecasts in mitigating the impact of extreme weather events.
Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
The value of GHACOF’s work was evident in last year’s El Niño predictions. Following the warnings, several countries took proactive measures. Isaac Obayi from the World Food Programme (WFF) highlighted the development of Somalia’s National Flood Early Warning Action Plan as a direct response to the GHACOF forecast.
There were more actions put in place including:
- Evacuation plans and humanitarian assistance: South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, and Kenya activated contingency plans to protect their citizens.
- Cash transfers: Vulnerable communities in high-risk areas received financial support to relocate.
- Disease surveillance: Measures were put in place to monitor and prevent waterborne and vector-borne diseases.
- Community awareness: Residents were informed about the potential consequences of the El Niño rains.
Challenges and Triumphs
Despite the proactive measures, East Africa still faced some El Niño-related challenges:
- Riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers
- Displacement of people
- Disruption of health and food supplies
- Increased risk of disease outbreaks
- Droughts and landslides
- Damage from lightning, hailstorms, pests, and diseases
A Look Ahead: March-May 2024 Forecast
The 66th GHACOF forum also predicted the weather patterns for the upcoming March-May (MAM) season:
- Warmer temperatures: Most of the region can expect above-average temperatures, with the highest likelihood in Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and southern Tanzania.
- Drier conditions: Parts of eastern Tanzania, western Ethiopia, and localized areas in western South Sudan are expected to receive less rainfall than usual.
- Rainfall patterns: Longer dry spells are forecast for Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, south-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of northern Somalia. Conversely, wetter periods are expected over Kenya, Burundi, Tanzania, Rwanda, western Ethiopia, with shorter wet spells in south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
- Early onsets: There’s a high chance of early rains in some parts of the region.
- Wetter conditions: Most of East Africa, particularly Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania, are expected to experience wetter-than-normal conditions, with the highest probability in central to western Kenya and bordering areas of Ethiopia and Uganda.
The Takeaway: Knowledge is Power
By providing early warnings and forecasts, GHACOF empowers countries in the Greater Horn of Africa to prepare for and mitigate the impact of extreme weather events. The proactive measures taken based on last year’s predictions serve as a testament to the program’s effectiveness. As we look ahead to the upcoming MAM season, this knowledge will once again be crucial in safeguarding lives and livelihoods across the region.
